The appraisal
The sheet a site lives or dies on, line by line.
GDV Gross Development Value
What the finished scheme is worth on completion, before anything is deducted.
In the trade
On a build and sell scheme it is the sum of the unit sale prices. On build and hold it is usually the investment value of the completed, let building. Every other figure in a development appraisal is subtracted from it, which is why it is the first number anyone establishes.
In plain terms
What it will be worth when it is finished. Nothing else. You do not start from what the land costs, you start from what you will get at the end and work backwards.
Worked example
Eight flats at £425,000 each gives a GDV of £3,400,000. Build the same eight to rent and GDV becomes the valuation of the block as an income asset, which is a different number entirely.
Where the cost sitsWhen a developer says "a £5m project" they almost always mean GDV, not build cost. The two are routinely a factor of two apart. Worth establishing which one is on the table before anyone quotes a fee against it.
Development appraisal
The sheet on which a developer tests whether a site works.
In the trade
GDV less build cost, professional fees, finance, planning obligations under section 106 or CIL, sale costs and required profit. Whatever survives that subtraction is the most that can be paid for the land.
In plain terms
One page where you take everything you have to spend away from what the finished building is worth. Whatever is left is what you can pay for the ground.
Worked example
GDV £3,400,000, less build cost £1,900,000, less fees, finance and sale costs £340,000, less required profit £680,000, leaves £480,000 for the land. If the seller wants £700,000 the deal does not work.
Where the cost sitsBuild cost is one cell on that sheet. On the same scheme it is three hundred priced lines. That gap is where cost planning and estimating earns its fee, because the single cell is the least tested number on the page.
Residual land value
What is left for the land once everything else has been taken out.
In the trade
The output of the appraisal, and the most a developer can pay for a site while still meeting the required return. It sits at the bottom of the subtraction, so it absorbs the error in every line above it.
In plain terms
The price above which the site stops being worth buying. It does not come from valuing the land. It comes from working out what can be built on it and what that will sell for.
Worked example
On the appraisal above, £480,000 is left for the land. Raise build cost by 8 per cent, or £152,000, and the residual falls to £328,000. An eight per cent movement in cost has taken a third of the land budget.
Where the cost sitsThis is the mechanism by which an out of date build cost rate kills good sites and lets bad ones through. A rate that has been tested against the current market is worth more than a rate that is merely cautious.
Build cost
The cost of physically building the scheme, excluding land, finance and profit.
In the trade
In most appraisals it is a single rate per square metre or per unit, carried across from the previous scheme. Unlike GDV, which is tested against comparable sales continuously, it is rarely retested and it carries no visible date.
In plain terms
What the builder will charge to put it up. The one large figure in the calculation that a developer does not see quoted somewhere every week, which is why it ages quietly.
Worked example
A rate of £2,100 per square metre set two years ago. Today’s tenders return £2,320. Across 820 square metres that is £180,400, more than half the land budget in the example above.
Where the cost sitsAn out of date rate is not conservative, it is simply wrong in whichever direction the market moved. We wrote about why the rate itself is the weak link in why a cost per square metre fails at tender, and about carrying it forward in construction inflation allowances.
Comparables comps
Achieved prices for similar properties nearby.
In the trade
The basis for GDV. The data is public, held in the land registry and with agents, which is why the value side of an appraisal is checked almost continuously.
In plain terms
What the neighbours sold for. That is how you know what yours will fetch.
Worked example
Three two bedroom flats sold within 400 metres in the last six months at £410,000, £425,000 and £430,000. The appraisal carries £420,000 a unit.
Where the cost sitsThe asymmetry is the whole point of this page. One side of the appraisal is checked every week against public data. The other is carried forward from a scheme that finished two years ago.
Underwrite underwriting
The fixed assumptions a developer prices every deal against.
In the trade
A private risk standard rather than a regulated one. It covers required profit, sales assumptions and buffers. "The numbers we underwrite to have not moved" means the thresholds were not quietly lowered in order to get something bought.
In plain terms
House rules. Below these numbers I do not buy, however good the site looks and however pleasant the seller is.
Worked example
Minimum 20 per cent profit on GDV, sale prices taken 5 per cent below the latest comparables, and a nine month sales period rather than six.
Where the cost sitsWhere a scheme fails on cost rather than on value, the answer is a tested cost plan rather than a relaxed threshold. Moving the threshold is how a portfolio ends up carrying exactly the risk it priced out.
Worst case inputs
Running the appraisal on pessimistic assumptions rather than central ones.
In the trade
Lower sale prices, a longer sales period, higher cost and a longer finance period. A scheme that still works on those inputs has room for the things that go wrong, because something always does.
In plain terms
Assume everything disappoints a little. If it still shows a profit, it is a project rather than a hope.
Worked example
£400,000 a unit instead of £425,000, and twelve months of sales instead of six. GDV falls to £3,200,000, finance costs rise, and only then do you look at what profit is left.
Where the cost sitsThis is the same exercise as a risk allowance in a cost plan, run from the other side of the table. Both fail in the same way, by being set as a round percentage instead of against identified events. More on that in setting a construction contingency.
Profit on GDV and profit on cost
Required profit expressed as a percentage of the finished value.
In the trade
Twenty per cent on build and sell and twenty five on build and hold are common thresholds. The higher figure on a hold reflects capital tied up longer and the risk in the exit valuation. Profit on GDV and profit on cost are different measures and produce different numbers on the same scheme.
In plain terms
How much is wanted, measured against the end value. It is not the same as a margin on cost, and the margin on cost always looks the bigger of the two.
Worked example
GDV £3,400,000, total cost £2,720,000, profit £680,000. That is 20 per cent on GDV and 25 per cent on cost. One transaction, two numbers, both correct.
Where the cost sitsBefore commenting on anyone’s margin, establish which base it is measured against. Otherwise two people are discussing different figures and agreeing about neither.